Can Animals Predict Disasters?

Those of us who have dogs and cats learn how our pets behave before and during bad weather. You may have a dog that starts to pace hours before a thunderstorm hits, or a cat that gets nervous when the wind suddenly rises. But can animals really predict weather disasters before they happen?

Scientists have been arguing for years about the ability of animals to predict storms and other kinds of natural disasters. People all over the world have reported seeing animals behaving oddly before a major disaster occurs. A huge earthquake and tsunami hit Indonesia in 2004, killing 225,000 people. So many died because there was no early warning system, and the disaster took them by surprise. But before the huge tsunami wave hit, there were eyewitness accounts of elephants running for higher ground and dogs refusing to go indoors. In one coastal village, a herd of buffalo was grazing on the beach. Suddenly they all seemed to look out to sea. Then the entire herd stampeded to the top of a hill nearby just minutes before the tsunami struck. Many of the people who managed to survive the sudden tsunami ran with these animals or followed them quickly.

Stories of animals sensing that a disaster was coming are not new. In 373 BCE, a Greek historian wrote that rats, dogs, and snakes deserted the city of Helice in the days leading up to a catastrophic earthquake. Minutes before an earthquake hit Naples, Italy in 1805, witnesses claimed that sheep, dogs, and geese began baaing, barking, and honking at the same time.

But why are scientists interested in the idea that animals could predict disasters? In many parts of the world, there aren’t very good early warning systems to let people know when a disaster is about to strike. Early warning systems usually include things like public warning sirens, smartphone emergency notifications, and TV and radio broadcasts. Modern weather stations with satellite connections can monitor storms before they hit. But even with modern technology, earthquakes are especially difficult to predict because scientists haven’t found any common signals that occur before they take place. If animals really are good predictors of disasters, they could warn people in places where technology isn’t available.

In 2017, a team of scientists from Germany studied the movement patterns of cows, sheep, and dogs using special collars with computer chips. They discovered that these farm animals began to change their behavior hours before an earthquake took place. And if the animals were very active for more than 45 minutes at a time, the scientists predicted that a strong earthquake would happen. Their prediction was right 7 out of 8 times.

However, not all scientists are convinced that animals can really predict disasters. Animals can be more sensitive to differences they feel in the vibrations of the earth or pressure in the air or water. But animals change their behavior for many different reasons. And even if they are sending a signal that something is going to happen, there is no reliable way to create a warning system using their behavior. This is simply because different animals do not all behave in the same way.

But while science does not have any solid, proven evidence of animals predicting disasters, it seems clear from the eyewitness accounts over the years that animals are more in tune with their environment than people are. They might not know why they’re sensing a change. But it triggers something in them that tells them to move to a safer area. So, if your dog starts running around and acting strangely, and your cat can’t be found anywhere, you might want to pay a little extra attention. Just in case.